どういう企画か？
日本株の取引は９時から始まります。
その15分前の8時45分に日経先物が始まります。
なので日経先物を見て、本日の日本株がどうなるか判断ができないか、と（誰もが）考えます。
今回は、「始値」に着目して統計をとってみました。
日経先物の始値と日経平均株価の始値は連動するか。ということです。
わかりやすく言うならば、
- 日経先物がプラスなら、日経平均株価の始値もプラス
- 日経先物がマイナスなら、日経平均株価の始値もマイナス
になるかということです。
結論：ほぼ連動する
結論から言うと、94％の確率で連動することがわかりました。
この数字は脅威ですね。
根拠データ
それでは根拠データを見ていきます。
期間：2022年12月8日～2023年12月8日
稼働日数：248日
日経先物と日経平均が連動しなかった日：15日
連動率：93.95％
【表注】
差額：当日始値－前日終値
率：差額÷前日終値
連動しない場合：〇
| 日経平均先物 | 日経平均株価 | 連動せず | |||
| 始値 | 始値 | ||||
| 差額 | 率 | 差額 | 率 | ||
| 2023/12/08(金) | -390 | -1.19% | -257.84 | -0.78% | |
| 2023/12/07(木) | -360 | -1.08% | -280.18 | -0.84% | |
| 2023/12/06(水) | 160 | 0.49% | 153.10 | 0.47% | |
| 2023/12/05(火) | -160 | -0.48% | -208.89 | -0.63% | |
| 2023/12/04(月) | 45 | 0.13% | -113.44 | -0.34% | 〇 |
| 2023/12/01(金) | 40 | 0.12% | 50.55 | 0.15% | |
| 2023/11/30(木) | -30 | -0.09% | -61.08 | -0.18% | |
| 2023/11/29(水) | -140 | -0.42% | -163.96 | -0.49% | |
| 2023/11/28(火) | 130 | 0.39% | 72.72 | 0.22% | |
| 2023/11/27(月) | 150 | 0.45% | 84.50 | 0.25% | |
| 2023/11/24(金) | 285 | 0.85% | 300.22 | 0.90% | |
| 2023/11/22(水) | -245 | -0.73% | -171.15 | -0.51% | |
| 2023/11/21(火) | 95 | 0.29% | 65.12 | 0.20% | |
| 2023/11/20(月) | -125 | -0.37% | -25.58 | -0.08% | |
| 2023/11/17(金) | -65 | -0.19% | -79.56 | -0.24% | |
| 2023/11/16(木) | -85 | -0.25% | -120.11 | -0.36% | |
| 2023/11/15(水) | 580 | 1.77% | 416.38 | 1.27% | |
| 2023/11/14(火) | 280 | 0.86% | 175.40 | 0.54% | |
| 2023/11/13(月) | 375 | 1.15% | 250.04 | 0.77% | |
| 2023/11/10(金) | -160 | -0.49% | -155.22 | -0.48% | |
| 2023/11/09(木) | 180 | 0.56% | 149.91 | 0.47% | |
| 2023/11/08(水) | 290 | 0.90% | 185.41 | 0.57% | |
| 2023/11/07(火) | -90 | -0.28% | -156.71 | -0.48% | |
| 2023/11/06(月) | 780 | 2.45% | 500.93 | 1.57% | |
| 2023/11/02(木) | 430 | 1.36% | 385.37 | 1.22% | |
| 2023/11/01(水) | 490 | 1.59% | 452.37 | 1.47% | |
| 2023/10/31(火) | -70 | -0.23% | -2.00 | -0.01% | |
| 2023/10/30(月) | -370 | -1.19% | -328.21 | -1.06% | |
| 2023/10/27(金) | 160 | 0.52% | 112.01 | 0.37% | |
| 2023/10/26(木) | -490 | -1.57% | -367.00 | -1.17% | |
| 2023/10/25(水) | 140 | 0.45% | 240.16 | 0.77% | |
| 2023/10/24(火) | 160 | 0.52% | 157.46 | 0.51% | |
| 2023/10/23(月) | -100 | -0.32% | -107.38 | -0.34% | |
| 2023/10/20(金) | -210 | -0.67% | -265.73 | -0.85% | |
| 2023/10/19(木) | -500 | -1.56% | -462.71 | -1.44% | |
| 2023/10/18(水) | 90 | 0.28% | -6.48 | -0.02% | 〇 |
| 2023/10/17(火) | 420 | 1.33% | 404.76 | 1.28% | |
| 2023/10/16(月) | -290 | -0.90% | -332.95 | -1.03% | |
| 2023/10/13(金) | -340 | -1.04% | -166.27 | -0.51% | |
| 2023/10/12(木) | 250 | 0.78% | 184.43 | 0.58% | |
| 2023/10/11(水) | 170 | 0.54% | 100.57 | 0.32% | |
| 2023/10/10(火) | 330 | 1.06% | 320.00 | 1.03% | |
| 2023/10/06(金) | 30 | 0.10% | -71.41 | -0.23% | 〇 |
| 2023/10/05(木) | 320 | 1.05% | 206.77 | 0.68% | |
| 2023/10/04(水) | -500 | -1.60% | -472.91 | -1.51% | |
| 2023/10/03(火) | -170 | -0.53% | -151.91 | -0.48% | |
| 2023/10/02(月) | 40 | 0.12% | 244.35 | 0.77% | |
| 2023/09/29(金) | 170 | 0.53% | 146.12 | 0.46% | |
| 2023/09/28(木) | -100 | -0.31% | -252.53 | -0.78% | |
| 2023/09/27(水) | -230 | -0.72% | -291.68 | -0.90% | |
| 2023/09/26(火) | -20 | -0.06% | -38.57 | -0.12% | |
| 2023/09/25(月) | 70 | 0.22% | 114.85 | 0.35% | |
| 2023/09/22(金) | -400 | -1.23% | -381.71 | -1.17% | |
| 2023/09/21(木) | -210 | -0.64% | -158.22 | -0.48% | |
| 2023/09/20(水) | 30 | 0.09% | 18.76 | 0.06% | |
| 2023/09/19(火) | -220 | -0.66% | -236.86 | -0.71% | |
| 2023/09/15(金) | 250 | 0.76% | 260.34 | 0.78% | |
| 2023/09/14(木) | 210 | 0.65% | 219.02 | 0.67% | |
| 2023/09/13(水) | -100 | -0.31% | -34.08 | -0.10% | |
| 2023/09/12(火) | 170 | 0.53% | 161.40 | 0.50% | |
| 2023/09/11(月) | 0 | 0.00% | 83.70 | 0.26% | |
| 2023/09/08(金) | -50 | -0.15% | -74.83 | -0.23% | |
| 2023/09/07(木) | -330 | -0.99% | -122.47 | -0.37% | |
| 2023/09/06(水) | 110 | 0.33% | 78.30 | 0.24% | |
| 2023/09/05(火) | -15 | -0.05% | 2.23 | 0.01% | 〇 |
| 2023/09/04(月) | 0 | 0.00% | 86.70 | 0.27% | |
| 2023/09/01(金) | -150 | -0.46% | -98.19 | -0.30% | |
| 2023/08/31(木) | 90 | 0.28% | 27.56 | 0.09% | |
| 2023/08/30(水) | 215 | 0.67% | 205.98 | 0.64% | |
| 2023/08/29(火) | 115 | 0.36% | 110.58 | 0.34% | |
| 2023/08/28(月) | 320 | 1.01% | 291.40 | 0.92% | |
| 2023/08/25(金) | -460 | -1.43% | -446.30 | -1.38% | |
| 2023/08/24(木) | 190 | 0.59% | 120.26 | 0.38% | |
| 2023/08/23(水) | -190 | -0.60% | -138.80 | -0.44% | |
| 2023/08/22(火) | 305 | 0.97% | 226.96 | 0.72% | |
| 2023/08/21(月) | 30 | 0.10% | 102.09 | 0.32% | |
| 2023/08/18(金) | -380 | -1.20% | -304.74 | -0.96% | |
| 2023/08/17(木) | -110 | -0.35% | -144.84 | -0.46% | |
| 2023/08/16(水) | -320 | -0.99% | -273.31 | -0.85% | |
| 2023/08/15(火) | 275 | 0.86% | 312.62 | 0.98% | |
| 2023/08/14(月) | -85 | -0.26% | -16.93 | -0.05% | |
| 2023/08/10(木) | -90 | -0.28% | -188.37 | -0.58% | |
| 2023/08/09(水) | -70 | -0.22% | -30.97 | -0.10% | |
| 2023/08/08(火) | 80 | 0.25% | 176.05 | 0.55% | |
| 2023/08/07(月) | -250 | -0.78% | -271.47 | -0.84% | |
| 2023/08/04(金) | -230 | -0.71% | -140.22 | -0.44% | |
| 2023/08/03(木) | -270 | -0.83% | -331.84 | -1.01% | |
| 2023/08/02(水) | -340 | -1.02% | -353.46 | -1.06% | |
| 2023/08/01(火) | 20 | 0.06% | 120.09 | 0.36% | |
| 2023/07/31(月) | 330 | 1.01% | 369.60 | 1.13% | |
| 2023/07/28(金) | -430 | -1.31% | -446.74 | -1.36% | |
| 2023/07/27(木) | -110 | -0.34% | -144.65 | -0.44% | |
| 2023/07/26(水) | -30 | -0.09% | 22.45 | 0.07% | 〇 |
| 2023/07/25(火) | 110 | 0.34% | 4.45 | 0.01% | |
| 2023/07/24(月) | 380 | 1.18% | 343.89 | 1.06% | |
| 2023/07/21(金) | -140 | -0.43% | -153.66 | -0.47% | |
| 2023/07/20(木) | -190 | -0.58% | -92.68 | -0.28% | |
| 2023/07/19(水) | 460 | 1.42% | 318.47 | 0.98% | |
| 2023/07/18(火) | 50 | 0.15% | 65.92 | 0.20% | |
| 2023/07/14(金) | 260 | 0.80% | 168.57 | 0.52% | |
| 2023/07/13(木) | 230 | 0.72% | 162.12 | 0.51% | |
| 2023/07/12(水) | 120 | 0.37% | 76.48 | 0.24% | |
| 2023/07/11(火) | 220 | 0.68% | 244.94 | 0.76% | |
| 2023/07/10(月) | -60 | -0.19% | 5.04 | 0.02% | 〇 |
| 2023/07/07(金) | -390 | -1.19% | -322.38 | -0.98% | |
| 2023/07/06(木) | -300 | -0.90% | -280.30 | -0.84% | |
| 2023/07/05(水) | -150 | -0.45% | -257.46 | -0.77% | |
| 2023/07/04(火) | -120 | -0.36% | -241.07 | -0.71% | |
| 2023/07/03(月) | 280 | 0.84% | 328.56 | 0.99% | |
| 2023/06/30(金) | -110 | -0.33% | -165.78 | -0.50% | |
| 2023/06/29(木) | 170 | 0.51% | 112.85 | 0.34% | |
| 2023/06/28(水) | 110 | 0.34% | 269.51 | 0.83% | |
| 2023/06/27(火) | -150 | -0.46% | -68.85 | -0.21% | |
| 2023/06/26(月) | -100 | -0.31% | -134.46 | -0.41% | |
| 2023/06/23(金) | 280 | 0.84% | 193.47 | 0.58% | |
| 2023/06/22(木) | -140 | -0.42% | -137.13 | -0.41% | |
| 2023/06/21(水) | -280 | -0.84% | -188.28 | -0.56% | |
| 2023/06/20(火) | -80 | -0.24% | -100.85 | -0.30% | |
| 2023/06/19(月) | 130 | 0.39% | 62.61 | 0.19% | |
| 2023/06/16(金) | -20 | -0.06% | -86.34 | -0.26% | |
| 2023/06/15(木) | 50 | 0.15% | -8.73 | -0.03% | 〇 |
| 2023/06/14(水) | 360 | 1.09% | 312.82 | 0.95% | |
| 2023/06/13(火) | 220 | 0.68% | 234.95 | 0.72% | |
| 2023/06/12(月) | 170 | 0.53% | 146.95 | 0.46% | |
| 2023/06/09(金) | 350 | 1.11% | 286.11 | 0.90% | |
| 2023/06/08(木) | -70 | -0.22% | -35.95 | -0.11% | |
| 2023/06/07(水) | 170 | 0.52% | 112.00 | 0.34% | |
| 2023/06/06(火) | -250 | -0.78% | -229.06 | -0.71% | |
| 2023/06/05(月) | 410 | 1.30% | 339.90 | 1.08% | |
| 2023/06/02(金) | 190 | 0.61% | 152.71 | 0.49% | |
| 2023/06/01(木) | -40 | -0.13% | -1.87 | -0.01% | |
| 2023/05/31(水) | -250 | -0.80% | -271.07 | -0.87% | |
| 2023/05/30(火) | -30 | -0.10% | -37.30 | -0.12% | |
| 2023/05/29(月) | 670 | 2.16% | 471.70 | 1.53% | |
| 2023/05/26(金) | 170 | 0.55% | 108.48 | 0.35% | |
| 2023/05/25(木) | 50 | 0.16% | -83.41 | -0.27% | 〇 |
| 2023/05/24(水) | -150 | -0.49% | -229.08 | -0.74% | |
| 2023/05/23(火) | 230 | 0.74% | 158.90 | 0.51% | |
| 2023/05/22(月) | -130 | -0.42% | -72.64 | -0.24% | |
| 2023/05/19(金) | 320 | 1.05% | 273.43 | 0.89% | |
| 2023/05/18(木) | 450 | 1.50% | 338.95 | 1.13% | |
| 2023/05/17(水) | 60 | 0.20% | 69.45 | 0.23% | |
| 2023/05/16(火) | 170 | 0.57% | 211.67 | 0.71% | |
| 2023/05/15(月) | 130 | 0.44% | 158.74 | 0.54% | |
| 2023/05/12(金) | 10 | 0.03% | 72.58 | 0.25% | |
| 2023/05/11(木) | -80 | -0.27% | -11.39 | -0.04% | |
| 2023/05/10(水) | 0 | 0.00% | -53.41 | -0.18% | |
| 2023/05/09(火) | 90 | 0.31% | 70.75 | 0.24% | |
| 2023/05/08(月) | -60 | -0.21% | -62.49 | -0.21% | |
| 2023/05/02(火) | 110 | 0.38% | 155.62 | 0.53% | |
| 2023/05/01(月) | 160 | 0.55% | 201.61 | 0.70% | |
| 2023/04/28(金) | 280 | 0.98% | 248.23 | 0.87% | |
| 2023/04/27(木) | -120 | -0.42% | -75.88 | -0.27% | |
| 2023/04/26(水) | -150 | -0.52% | -141.55 | -0.49% | |
| 2023/04/25(火) | 90 | 0.31% | 104.21 | 0.36% | |
| 2023/04/24(月) | 70 | 0.25% | 67.41 | 0.24% | |
| 2023/04/21(金) | -90 | -0.31% | -67.02 | -0.23% | |
| 2023/04/20(木) | -110 | -0.38% | -134.76 | -0.47% | |
| 2023/04/19(水) | -10 | -0.03% | -38.99 | -0.14% | |
| 2023/04/18(火) | 40 | 0.14% | 52.76 | 0.19% | |
| 2023/04/17(月) | 110 | 0.39% | 44.52 | 0.16% | |
| 2023/04/14(金) | 170 | 0.60% | 164.57 | 0.58% | |
| 2023/04/13(木) | -160 | -0.57% | -130.12 | -0.46% | |
| 2023/04/12(水) | 90 | 0.32% | 62.56 | 0.22% | |
| 2023/04/11(火) | 200 | 0.72% | 262.24 | 0.95% | |
| 2023/04/10(月) | 100 | 0.36% | 140.21 | 0.51% | |
| 2023/04/07(金) | 50 | 0.18% | 81.74 | 0.30% | |
| 2023/04/06(木) | -160 | -0.58% | -224.12 | -0.81% | |
| 2023/04/05(水) | -150 | -0.53% | -176.38 | -0.62% | |
| 2023/04/04(火) | -90 | -0.32% | 25.78 | 0.09% | 〇 |
| 2023/04/03(月) | 130 | 0.46% | 161.87 | 0.58% | |
| 2023/03/31(金) | 150 | 0.54% | 226.29 | 0.81% | |
| 2023/03/30(木) | 140 | 0.51% | -55.89 | -0.20% | 〇 |
| 2023/03/29(水) | -10 | -0.04% | 31.12 | 0.11% | 〇 |
| 2023/03/28(火) | 70 | 0.26% | 96.95 | 0.35% | |
| 2023/03/27(月) | 20 | 0.07% | 97.14 | 0.35% | |
| 2023/03/24(金) | -70 | -0.26% | -50.99 | -0.19% | |
| 2023/03/23(木) | -210 | -0.77% | -233.64 | -0.85% | |
| 2023/03/22(水) | 450 | 1.69% | 352.48 | 1.31% | |
| 2023/03/20(月) | -100 | -0.37% | -80.06 | -0.29% | |
| 2023/03/17(金) | 220 | 0.82% | 221.62 | 0.82% | |
| 2023/03/16(木) | -540 | -2.00% | -432.81 | -1.59% | |
| 2023/03/15(水) | 340 | 1.26% | 199.62 | 0.73% | |
| 2023/03/14(火) | -450 | -1.63% | -377.01 | -1.35% | |
| 2023/03/13(月) | -210 | -0.75% | -257.76 | -0.92% | |
| 2023/03/10(金) | -370 | -1.30% | -237.86 | -0.83% | |
| 2023/03/09(木) | 10 | 0.04% | 203.92 | 0.72% | |
| 2023/03/08(水) | -90 | -0.32% | -71.95 | -0.25% | |
| 2023/03/07(火) | -50 | -0.18% | -35.19 | -0.12% | |
| 2023/03/06(月) | 300 | 1.08% | 254.84 | 0.91% | |
| 2023/03/03(金) | 140 | 0.51% | 184.39 | 0.67% | |
| 2023/03/02(木) | -40 | -0.15% | 48.29 | 0.18% | 〇 |
| 2023/03/01(水) | -70 | -0.25% | -81.99 | -0.30% | |
| 2023/02/28(火) | 140 | 0.51% | 91.38 | 0.33% | |
| 2023/02/27(月) | -70 | -0.26% | -130.75 | -0.48% | |
| 2023/02/24(金) | 60 | 0.22% | 40.40 | 0.15% | |
| 2023/02/22(水) | -210 | -0.77% | -207.11 | -0.75% | |
| 2023/02/21(火) | -80 | -0.29% | -45.85 | -0.17% | |
| 2023/02/20(月) | 20 | 0.07% | -16.00 | -0.06% | 〇 |
| 2023/02/17(金) | -190 | -0.69% | -211.84 | -0.76% | |
| 2023/02/16(木) | 180 | 0.66% | 152.86 | 0.56% | |
| 2023/02/15(水) | 110 | 0.40% | 83.24 | 0.30% | |
| 2023/02/14(火) | 220 | 0.80% | 278.05 | 1.01% | |
| 2023/02/13(月) | -120 | -0.43% | -120.63 | -0.44% | |
| 2023/02/10(金) | 0 | 0.00% | 126.90 | 0.46% | |
| 2023/02/09(木) | -180 | -0.65% | -153.06 | -0.55% | |
| 2023/02/08(水) | 50 | 0.18% | 5.27 | 0.02% | |
| 2023/02/07(火) | 30 | 0.11% | 51.25 | 0.19% | |
| 2023/02/06(月) | 290 | 1.05% | 255.20 | 0.93% | |
| 2023/02/03(金) | 90 | 0.33% | 52.98 | 0.19% | |
| 2023/02/02(木) | 90 | 0.33% | 106.79 | 0.39% | |
| 2023/02/01(水) | 150 | 0.55% | 156.30 | 0.57% | |
| 2023/01/31(火) | 40 | 0.15% | 25.16 | 0.09% | |
| 2023/01/30(月) | -10 | -0.04% | 2.21 | 0.01% | 〇 |
| 2023/01/27(金) | 30 | 0.11% | 65.66 | 0.24% | |
| 2023/01/26(木) | 50 | 0.18% | 49.63 | 0.18% | |
| 2023/01/25(水) | -130 | -0.48% | -123.31 | -0.45% | |
| 2023/01/24(火) | 290 | 1.08% | 244.39 | 0.91% | |
| 2023/01/23(月) | 360 | 1.36% | 326.68 | 1.23% | |
| 2023/01/20(金) | -20 | -0.08% | -58.54 | -0.22% | |
| 2023/01/19(木) | -260 | -0.97% | -250.04 | -0.93% | |
| 2023/01/18(水) | 70 | 0.27% | 112.66 | 0.43% | |
| 2023/01/17(火) | 130 | 0.50% | 93.19 | 0.36% | |
| 2023/01/16(月) | -290 | -1.11% | -282.85 | -1.08% | |
| 2023/01/13(金) | -170 | -0.64% | -58.04 | -0.22% | |
| 2023/01/12(木) | 90 | 0.34% | 78.94 | 0.30% | |
| 2023/01/11(水) | 150 | 0.57% | 186.65 | 0.71% | |
| 2023/01/10(火) | 270 | 1.04% | 202.76 | 0.78% | |
| 2023/01/06(金) | -80 | -0.31% | -80.72 | -0.31% | |
| 2023/01/05(木) | 280 | 1.09% | 108.64 | 0.42% | |
| 2023/01/04(水) | -250 | -0.96% | -259.57 | -0.99% | |
| 2022/12/30(金) | 210 | 0.81% | 194.33 | 0.74% | |
| 2022/12/29(木) | -200 | -0.76% | -265.60 | -1.01% | |
| 2022/12/28(水) | -110 | -0.42% | -138.53 | -0.52% | |
| 2022/12/27(火) | 60 | 0.23% | 164.91 | 0.62% | |
| 2022/12/26(月) | 60 | 0.23% | 64.29 | 0.25% | |
| 2022/12/23(金) | -320 | -1.21% | -300.10 | -1.13% | |
| 2022/12/22(木) | 190 | 0.72% | 164.71 | 0.62% | |
| 2022/12/21(水) | -100 | -0.38% | -20.86 | -0.08% | |
| 2022/12/20(火) | -60 | -0.22% | 19.71 | 0.07% | 〇 |
| 2022/12/19(月) | -280 | -1.02% | -247.20 | -0.90% | |
| 2022/12/16(金) | -410 | -1.47% | -345.00 | -1.23% | |
| 2022/12/15(木) | -150 | -0.53% | -165.07 | -0.59% | |
| 2022/12/14(水) | 120 | 0.43% | 50.18 | 0.18% | |
| 2022/12/13(火) | 220 | 0.79% | 225.04 | 0.81% | |
| 2022/12/12(月) | -140 | -0.50% | -159.91 | -0.57% | |
| 2022/12/09(金) | 160 | 0.58% | 59.53 | 0.22% | |
| 2022/12/08(木) | -140 | -0.51% | -64.10 | -0.23% | |
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